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The Gurdaspur Lok Sabha constituency is one of the 13 parliamentary constituencies in Punjab that will go to polls in the last phase of the election on June 1. It is a general category seat, comprising parts of the Gurdaspur district and the entire Pathankot. The constituency includes nine Legislative Assembly segments: Sujanpur, Bhoa (SC) and Pathankot from Pathankot district, and Gurdaspur, Dina Nagar (SC), Qadian, Batala, Fatehgarh Churian, and Dera Baba Nanak from Gurdaspur district.

In the 2019 elections, Gurdaspur Lok Sabha constituency had 15,72,786 voters, of which urban constituted 30.6% and rural were 69.4%. The literacy rate of the constituency was recorded at 71.13%, per the 2011 Census.

The Scheduled Castes form 25% of the total electorate; Hindus are 47%, Sikhs are 43.64%, Muslims are 1.2% and Christians are 7.68%.

Political Dynamics

With major parties in the fray, the contest for Gurdaspur is all set to be a nail-bitingly tough one. Currently, the Congress is leading with an edge, with the AAP and the BJP fighting for the second place. Meanwhile, the Akali Dal led by Sukhbir Singh Badal faces the possibility of being relegated to fourth place, followed by SAD-Amritsar (SAD-A) led by Simranjeet Singh Mann.

In the 2019 parliamentary elections, the BJP’s celebrity candidate, Sunny Deol, backed by undivided Akali Dal, bagged a winning vote share of 50.8% with a comfortable lead of 82,459 votes. Congress’ Sunil Jakhar bagged 43.7% of the vote and AAP’s Peter Masih scored 2.5%.

In 2022, the Congress trumped the assembly polls securing six seats out of 10 in Gurdaspur Lok Sabha constituency, with AAP scoring two and BJP bagging one. The Congress’ vote share was 34%, the AAP’s 29.6%, and the vote of the BJP and Akali Dal, former allies, was splintered to 13.6% and 17.1% respectively.

BJP Faces Anti-incumbency

Sitting MP Sunny Deol, who won the seat with a sizeable margin on a BJP ticket, leveraged his star power and the Modi factor to secure a victory in 2019. However, the ‘Gadar 2’ actor is accused of being inactive and having disappeared from the scene, not visiting the constituency enough or engaging with constituents. Although the late Vinod Khanna, who served for about 14 years in Gurdaspur, is still remembered for his work in the constituency, Deol’s tenure has left no such mark. Five years on, the failures of the celebrity MP have become a drag on the party’s fortunes, which despite dropping him from the candidate list, is facing difficult questions.

To address the widespread sense of anti-incumbency, the BJP has introduced a fresh face, Dinesh Singh ‘Babbu’. He is a long-time associate of the Punjab BJP and a resident of Gurdaspur. He has served three terms as an MLA, representing Sujanpur, and is a former deputy speaker of the Punjab Legislative Assembly.

Babbu hails from the Suryavanshi Rajput Barsawal/Barsal family and is a second-generation politician with a non-controversial image. His grandfather, Chaudhary Dharm Singh, was the former ‘numberdar’ of Manawal village. In the Gurdaspur parliamentary constituency, there are about 13 lakh voters, with over 3 lakh belonging to the Rajput community. Babbu is actively seeking support from this community.

Dinesh Singh Babbu began his political career in 1995 as a BJP worker and is seen as a party loyalist. In 2007, the BJP first nominated him for the Sujanpur constituency. He was subsequently elected as a legislator from Sujanpur three times in a row, in 2007, 2012, and 2017. He has also served as the Deputy Speaker of the Punjab Legislative Assembly.

Discontentment towards Sunny Deol is a major drawback in Dinesh Singh Babbu’s campaign. But this is not all. The party is also struggling to shake-off the image of being ‘anti-farmer’ following the prolonged farmers’ protests of which many farmers from Gurdaspur were a part. Those from the ‘Arhatiya’ or the middle-man community in the farming business have no love lost for the BJP, erecting a significant challenge for the BJP this time.

Meanwhile, the Modi factor, including the Ram Mandir inauguration ceremony, have made a mark on the Hindu community. Hindus, at 47%, comprise almost half of the electorate and are increasingly drawn to the party traditionally. In the absence of an alliance with the Akali Dal, the BJP is expected to retain the Hindu voter base. However, the lack of an alliance also indicates that the BJP will lose out on Sikh votes that remain loyal to the SAD, causing a split in their combined vote share, dampening each of their bids.

The lack of a celebrity candidate, a factor that the BJP has historically had to rely on repeatedly to win, is also not in play this election. However, optimists point out that Dinesh Singh Babbu being a local face, is a refreshing shift in the party’s strategy which may reap electoral gains in the current conditions in Gurdaspur where the electorate is highly disillusioned with ‘celebrities’ and ‘outsiders’ since the Sunny Deol fiasco.

Singh will be relying on the Hindu vote including that of the Rajput and Brahmin communities, especially in the Pathankot district. Moreover, the party is also vying for the Dalit vote, which will split to a considerable degree in its favour. In Pathankot, the BJP has its own MLA which is a plus point. In the cities of Pathankot and Gurdaspur, a considerable chunk of Hindu as well as Sikh voters are also said to be drawn to the BJP, especially the Modi factor. However, the voting pattern hinges significantly on the impact of PM Modi’s campaign rally, the degree of which will decide whether Dinesh Singh Babbu will be a core contender against the Congress or not. In case, Singh does not succeed in overshadowing the AAP opponent before polling day, his fortunes will be affected.

Congress Has an Edge

The Congress has named Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa who has a considerable advantage this election. Randhawa is the current MLA from the Dera Baba Nanak assembly constituency and is a former deputy chief minister of Punjab. His father, Santokh Singh, was a senior Congress leader who even served as the party chief twice. Randhawa was first elected to the Punjab assembly from the erstwhile segment of Fatehgarh Churian in 2002.

Randhawa had been tasked as the Rajasthan in-charge for the party before being named as its Gurdaspur candidate. Regarding BJP nominee Dinesh Babbu, Randhawa remarked that despite serving as an MLA for 15 years, he “never uttered a single word in the Assembly.” He also mentioned that villagers are preventing Babbu from entering their areas, highlighting the ongoing protests by farmers against the BJP’s poll candidates.

Facing a significant challenge from AAP, Randhawa has called it the B-team of the BJP, and has indicated that both the BJP-led Centre and the AAP government in Punjab were involved in preventing protesting farmers from entering Delhi.

One drawback cited by observers is that Randhawa’s is not seen as an accessible leader and is all described by some as arrogant and abrasive when it comes to communicating with people.

However, on a larger scale, the Congress has managed to successfully position itself as an alternative to both the BJP and the AAP. The Congress is bolstered by an array of factors. First, discontentment against current BJP MP Sunny Deol, second, widespread disapproval for the BJP among farmer communities in rural areas, third, anti-incumbency against the AAP and its alleged ‘involvement’ with the Centre, and third, the six Congress MLAs who are helping Randhawa dominate in the election campaign.

In such conditions, the lion’s share of Sikh votes, almost 44%, may lean towards the Congress this Lok Sabha Election. This trend will particularly dominate among Sikh farmer communities in rural areas. Further, the sizeable Christian vote share will also split between the Congress and the Akali Dal, with the Congress having the edge. Muslim voters will also lean towards the party.

AAP Factor

The AAP has nominated 36-year-old Amansher Singh its MLA from the Batala constituency. The young leader has a considerable following in the constituency and is described as a powerful orator. His candidature was on expected lines as the party had limited options this election. Backed by the AAP government in the state, and chief minister Bhagwant Mann in particular, Singh has tremendous potential in this election. In the triangular contest among the Congress, AAP and the BJP, Singh appears to be a likely contender for second place, lest he manages to defeat the Congress.

The state government’s welfare schemes, particularly the delivery of free electricity has drastically improved the AAP’s fortunes. However, the challenge is that voters may not see this as an issue to vote on in the Lok Sabha Election.

Moreover, reports indicate that the leader was initially reluctant to contest from the seat. The party reportedly relied on multiple survey reports that all favoured him. His hesitance arose from his ambitions to secure a ministerial position in the state, which would be jeopardised if he became a Lok Sabha MP. On the other hand, if he loses the election, it might damage his reputation in his home constituency, not to mention the financial losses incurred in the campaign. Therefore, now that he is in the fray, this is a major battle for Singh’s political career, which he is said to be taking seriously.

Observing trends from recent elections— the AAP was in a formidable second place in the assembly elections with 29.6% of the vote share against the Congress which had 34%. However, in 2019, the party only scored 2.5% of the vote with the main fight being between the SAD-BJP alliance and the Congress. This time, in the absence of the aforementioned alliance, the AAP may seek an edge but its mettle in general elections is yet to be proved.

Akali Dal Fighting for Relevance

The Alkali Dal led by Sukhbir Singh Badal faces the possibility of being relegated to fourth place, followed by its Amritsar faction, which may bag a small number of votes as well.

The Akali Dal has nominated Daljeet Singh Cheema, who was a former minister in the Akali Dal-led government of Punjab. He has served as an MLA from Rupnagar constituency of Punjab. Tough with a decent image, he is not well-known in the Gurdaspur and finds himself stranded in his campaign, seeking support from party members like former MLA Ashok Sharma to walk him through Hindu-dominated turf in Pathankot.

The SAD is faced with the stark possibility of having its vote share split, losing Hindu voters especially as the BJP candidate steps up his campaign backed by the Prime Minister. When it comes to competing with the Congress, it has struggled to compete for the anti-BJP vote bank, owing to its former association with the party.

• Current MP: Sunny Deol of BJP since 2019, preceded by Sunil Jhakar of Congress (2017) and late Vinod Khanna (2014)
• Candidates: Dinesh Singh “Babbu” (BJP), Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa (Congress), Amansher Singh Kalsi (AAP), Daljeet Singh Cheema (SAD), Gurinder Singh (SAD-A)

Key Issues

Missing MP: The people of Punjab are not the most benevolent towards the BJP. Therefore, one would assume that the saffron party would make it a point to nurture the two Lok Sabha seats it had won from the state in 2019. However, actor Sunny Deol, who won Gurdaspur for the BJP by over 82,000 votes, remained absent in the five years since his election. Not once did he visit the constituency or interact with the people who had reposed their faith in him. For the BJP, the dismal performance of Sunny Deol as MP is posing a big challenge this time around, as all its rivals make it a point to highlight this issue among voters. In fact, late last year, locals had even put up “Missing: Sunny Deol” posters in the constituency, which landed the BJP in an embarrassing situation.

Drug Menace: Gurdaspur, being a border district and a constituency, is among the biggest victims of drug consumption in Punjab. Large sections of the youth population have grown an addiction for heroin, which is mostly supplied to them illegally from Pakistan. The biggest problem pertains to drones being sent in by Pakistan. These drones carry with them huge payloads of high-grade heroin. While this is among the most concerning issues in Gurdaspur, it has somehow not made it to the electoral discourse of parties fighting for the seat. Among the people, however, drugs are becoming tools to ruin entire families and the lives of innumerable people.

Civic Infra and Connectivity: The sorry state of civic infra across Gurdaspur is evident. The Gurdaspur-Mukerian road, which links the constituency with other parts of the country, is in a deplorable state. The situation of roads as a whole is not very promising in the constituency, with several villages still disconnected from the road network. Connectivity is another important issue, in the sense that despite the long-standing demands for connecting Gurdaspur to Mukerian with a railway line, no MP has delivered on the same. Residents of Gurdaspur going to New Delhi have to travel to Amritsar, 70 km away, before they can catch a Delhi-bound train. Once the Gurdaspur-Mukerian rail track sees light of the day, people can visit Delhi via Jalandhar, thereby cutting down on travel time considerably.

Farmers’ Ire: The biggest challenge for the BJP in Punjab this time around, and more so in Gurdaspur, is to ensure that its candidates can freely campaign. However, such is the anger of farmers here that the BJP candidates, including Dinesh Babbu are facing protests wherever they go. Farmers’ anger is set to play a crucial role in the ongoing elections of Punjab, and most of this ire is directed at the BJP. Importantly, farmers’ issues find wider resonance across Punjab, even among those not involved in agriculture. There is also a perception that the Modi government is inkling to end the Minimum Support Price (MSP) regime in India, which is why the Arthiya-Kisan coterie is up in arms against the BJP.

Industry Exodus: Another concerning issue is that of the small- and medium-scale industries moving out of Gurdaspur, especially from the Batala cluster, and shifting shop to Himachal Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir. The shutdown of factories has resulted in job losses, apart from creating the impression that Punjab is no longer an industry-friendly destination. Joblessness in Punjab is also fuelling foreign migration, with the youth migrating to Western countries while leaving their parents behind without much support.

Sand Mining: The AAP government of Punjab has stopped illegal sand mining for the past two years, antagonising a rich and influential lobby in the state. Those involved in the business are upset as their source of revenue has essentially been shut down and are demanding that sand mining be allowed once again.

Anger Against Agniveer: Punjab, being a major contributor to the armed forces, has not liked the Modi government’s Agniveer scheme for military recruitment. The youth complains that they are not very inclined to take the plunge only to be sent home after four years of service.

Infrastructural Works

New Projects: In December, Bhagwant Mann and Arvind Kejriwal inaugurated Baba Banda Singh Bahadur Inter-State Bus Terminal, built at a cost of Rs 15 crore on six acres, and a railway underpass. They also inaugurated other projects worth Rs 1,854 crore. The Punjab government has prepared a new tehsil complex at Dinanagar at a cost of Rs 6.60 crore in which all the Tehsil level offices will serve the people under one roof. Along with this, a new office of sub-tehsil has also been built at Dinanagar at a cost of Rs 2.36 crore.

Gas Pipeline: The Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) has awarded the 175-km Gurdaspur-Jammu Tawi Gas Pipeline Project to the Gas Authority of India Limited (GAIL). The 175 km-long pipeline is to carry the environment-friendly fuel to Jammu and will have an initial capacity to carry at least 2 million standard cubic metres per day.

Border Village Outreach: Himanshu Aggarwal, Deputy Commissioner of Gurdaspur district has taken the initiative of the AaBAD programme (Absolute Border Area Development). The project has three verticals – AaBAD Service Delivery Camps, AaBAD Sanjeevani Camps (Health), and AaBAD Hunar Haat (Skill Development). The AaBAD Camps are aimed at providing public services at the village level in border areas. These camps are focused on creating awareness about government schemes among the local population and providing them with a platform to register their grievances. These camps facilitate the deployment of government officers from twenty different departments and provide people with a host of services.

(With additional inputs from Bishamber Bittu)